Jane Doe has Breast Cancer
Jane Doe has cancer.
This is an example of a classic Bayesian calculation. it is patterned on ( and the numbers are taken from) the discussion on pages 104-105 in
Pearl, Judea. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect. Basic Books. Kindle Edition.
1/700 of the population has cancer
Jane Doe has a positive test
Likelihood of having cancer given a positive test
Does Jane Doe have cancer given a positive test