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Topic:

Reward is a feature that we hope will inspire experts to answer important questions and make their answers available to everyone. It allows a sponsor to signal that they think a question is particularly important by offering a financial prize for established arguments that contribute to the establishment or refutation of the topic. A prize winner can keep the money, apply it to reward other questions, or donate it to charity.

Test string

TOPIC HISTORY

Judge Kavanaugh has never committed any of the sexual acts he was accused of



Statements

Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
STATEMENT About 40% of Named rape allegations are later retracted. of the rest we don't know.

About 40% of named rape accusations are later retracted. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/28213722/?i=2&from=/8135653/related

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/8135653/

 

 for the rest we don't know, but certainly a lot of highly publicized cases have been false including the Rolling Stone UVA rape hoax, the Duke lacrosse rape case, The recent case where six high school girls admitted they had falsely accused a boy in class https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/17/seneca-valley-mean-girls-false-sexual

 the four dentists recently cleared of a false accusation by video evidence https://news3lv.com/news/local/four-california-dentists-have-rape-charges-dropped-after-video-contradicts-womans-story

 and a host of other college harassment cases. I'm not aware of any recent publicized cases where the evidence actually came down on the side of the rape being real.

1.0 Pythagoras Details 2018-10-19 18:26:27.0
STATEMENT Believe the woman let alone women

The likelihood a man is a rapist conditioned on being accused by three women is radically different.

0.9 Pythagoras Details 2018-10-19 18:11:33.0
STATEMENT Very few men rape, especially women who can name them.

Of all the men I know personally, none of them have even ever been accused of rape.

 

0.99 Pythagoras Details 2018-10-17 16:41:22.0
TEST none of the four accusers have found any corroboration at all

All the people named as being at the parties and such have denied any knowledge.

 No evidence has turned up.

 I estimate the likelihood of not finding any evidence if such a thing had turned up as being very low. If Cavanaugh was waving his penis around at parties people would've heard about it.  There would have been  police reports for at least some of them.  I'd say  the likelihood of finding no evidence or corroboration conditioned on an accusation being true is below 0.1

 I estimate the likelihood of not finding evidence conditioned on an accusation being false as 0.8

 

1.0 Spinoza Details 2018-09-28 16:07:55.0
STATEMENT This is out of thousands of women who could have potentially accused him at a similar level of credibility

These are women who don't know him and to he doesn't know. They are merely claiming to have been at the same parties. And even that hasn't been documented. So there are potentially tens or hundreds of thousands of women who could if they wanted to raise claims with a similar level of evidence (zero) and similar credibility. So whatever the likelihood you thought that they were describing a false memory or lying taken  alone, so you have to multiply by at least 1000 maybe 10,000 to get an estimate of the likelihood that women saying this would come forward conditioned on its not having happened.

,

0.999 Spinoza Details 2018-09-28 14:54:09.0
STATEMENT Four women have accused him of a variety of sexual crimes

For women have accused him of a variety of sexual crimes. Before considering other facts I was signing this a prior .9 falsifying the topic statement.

0.9 Spinoza Details 2018-09-28 14:51:12.0
STATEMENT Judge Kavanaugh has never committed any of the sexual acts he was accused of

Probability mode is on so we are computing a probability.

I am assigning this the probability of 0.99 as my prior that a random man hasn't committed sex crimes on a woman who knows his name (and could thus charge him and likely send him to prison.)

1.0 Spinoza Details 2018-09-28 14:43:03.0