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TOPIC HISTORY

Trump Wins Election, Expecting a Probability



Statements

Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
STATEMENT The election will either be manipulated or will be subverted by some means.

I do not believe that they will allow any meaningful vote to occur sense the voting system has been getting "rigged" for quite some time. If trump does overwelmingly win they will create a poltical problem or some inherrent tactic to get their elected candidate in.

1.0 DeGenCHANGE Details 2016-10-04 20:16:31.0
STATEMENT Trump Wins Election, Expecting a Probability 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Not if assassinated

There have been two tries, according to the Daily Mail the Chicago rally postponement was due to a plan for a coordinated rush to overwhelm security, and the guy who just got sentenced to two years.

There could well be a more professional attempt, but he's got secret service protection. OTOH, so did JFK and Reagan. 2 of the last 10 Presidents took bullets in spite of SS protection. So it would be unreasonable IMO to take the likelihood at less than 1/10. 

0.1 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Trump Wins After Hillary Withdraws. 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Trump loses after Hillary Withdraws

Trumps unpopulars are high. Its conceivable if Hillary withdrew, the Democrats could yet nominate somebody who would beat Trump, assuming no monster vote emerges. Voting has started, so the likelihood of this will likely drop over time. Don't know how to estimate the likelihood of this. Going to say, if Hillary withdraws and monster voted doesn't emerge, 1/2.

0.5 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Hillary withdraws (health) 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Hillary has neurological problems which prevent her from finishing

Another topic has already found that the probability is almost 100% they are hiding something.

I'm going to figure there is a 20% chance they are forced to quit, today with her having taken yesterday off after having her eyes seemingly disconnected in her speech the day before, but if they make it another couple weeks, as voting has started, this will probably have to be revised.

She has made it through the year of primaries, debates, and such, but her most recent public appearences have been few and perhaps half of them have featured either a coughing fit, odd eye movements, or collapse. There's a good chance any one of those during the 90 minute standing debate expected to be watched by 100 million will cause them to bench her. 

0.2 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Trump way ahead based on monster vote.

The monster vote is defined as a large vote by people who have not voted before and are thus not being counted in the surveys.
This statement represents the event that the monster vote emerges and hands Trump victory.

Evidence in favor:

  • Trump got a lot of votes in the primaries from new voters and greatly increased turnout.
  • This was the first Presidential election without an incumbent in history where Republicans got more primary votes than Democrats.
  • 1/4 of registrations in Florida were new according to report I saw, said to be unprecedented.
  • Trump drawing unprecedented size crowds. Many of them have not voted before.
  • The monster vote, if it emerges, will blindside polls because they are adjusted for likely voters based on previous behavior. 
  • The monster vote did emerge in Brexit.
  • Online/ap polls have Trump way ahead, https://usdailywire.com/2016/08/18/trump-leads-clinton-by-6/  Note https://usdailywire.com/about/  USDailyWire claims that, because of their proprietary methodology, "the USDW is the only Public Opinion Polling Organization that allows complete anonymity to respondents, while still using traditional identification measures to classify responses and represent a fair demographic of the United States voting public. "
  • Zip Question and Answer Ap has him way ahead:LOS ANGELES — Despite a majority of opinion polls showing the 2016 presidential election going to Democrat Hillary Clinton, a smartphone app developer says his data suggests challenger Donald Trump will be the victor. “Based on the stats we see, he looks strong,” says Ric Militi, co-founder of San Diego-based Crazy Raccoons, maker of the Zip question and answer app. His app poses questions and polls responses based on an average of 100,000 daily users. “I go with Trump, based on what we see.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/?siteID=je6NUbpObpQ-IV6MrUkWwK5ikV69XC0x0Q  
  • There's also a lot of evidence polls have been rigged to hide Trump support, eg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs5FukqWEAAli_C.jpg:large 
  • People are staying away from Hillary events. 200 at a 30000 student college in a Democratic city, for example.

The evidence against is : we've never seen the monster vote before, so expect low prior, but OTOH we've never seen a guy like Trump either. However, I haven't seen any evidence Perot drew a vast number of first time voters, or did much better than polls, which is a negative indication. I don't think Trump did dramatically better than polling in the primaries.

Also, Trump could actually draw a Monster vote, and something else happen that is still larger the other way, like some kind of October Surprise.
Giving this Proposed Probability .1 to represent low prior.

0.1 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Hillary has serious health issues that are being covered up

This is established as having 100% probability here:

http://truthsift.com/search_view?statement=Hillary-Clinton-Has-A-Serious-Medical-Condition-That-is-Being-Hidden-From-the-Public,-Probability&id=651&nid=6015 
Please challenge there if you have a problem.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Trump beats Hillary without Monster Vote

FiveThirtyEight does a MonteCarlo estimate running over a model based on polls and economic data.

They have the odds of Trump winning at 43%. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=538twitter 

Just taking their analysis for the Proposed Probability of this statement.

0.43 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
TEST Trump got a lot of votes in the primaries from new voters and greatly increased turnout.

Going to estimate the likelihood of this given monster vote will materialize as 1.

Likelihood of this given monster vote will not materialize as 1/5 based on fact 5 previous elections the Republicans never outpolled Democrats in primaries with no incumben t on either side.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
TEST Trump drawing unprecedented size crowds. Many of them have not voted before.

Say probability 1 if monster vote, .2 without at best sinced drawing crowds bigger than anybody previous.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
TEST Online ap polls have Trump way ahead
  • Online/ap polls have Trump way ahead, https://usdailywire.com/2016/08/18/trump-leads-clinton-by-6/  Notehttps://usdailywire.com/about/  USDailyWire claims that, because of their proprietary methodology, "the USDW is the only Public Opinion Polling Organization that allows complete anonymity to respondents, while still using traditional identification measures to classify responses and represent a fair demographic of the United States voting public. "
1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
TEST Zip Question and Answer Ap has him way ahead
  • Zip Question and Answer Ap has him way ahead:LOS ANGELES — Despite a majority of opinion polls showing the 2016 presidential election going to Democrat Hillary Clinton, a smartphone app developer says his data suggests challenger Donald Trump will be the victor. “Based on the stats we see, he looks strong,” says Ric Militi, co-founder of San Diego-based Crazy Raccoons, maker of the Zip question and answer app. His app poses questions and polls responses based on an average of 100,000 daily users. “I go with Trump, based on what we see.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/?siteID=je6NUbpObpQ-IV6MrUkWwK5ikV69XC0x0Q    
1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT October Surprise Could get him anyway

Trump's enemies, who include after all Obama and the establishment on both parties, have a lot of resources and are highly motivated. The question is, are they organized enough/competent enough to pull it off. 

October surprises have happened in history with less one sided control/motivation, in particular Reagan and Nixon. Also the dump of Bush's drunk driving had an impact, but fell short. Perhaps .5 they try, .1 they succeed?

0.1 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
TEST He didn't do radically better than polling indicated in primaries

Likelihood of this if monster vote not included now seems low, although its argued that there is more fraud and confirmation bias among the pollsters now that its against Hillary. 
Also, his polls rose steadily throughout the campaign, and his polls are rising steadily now. It may be there is a monster vote the polls didn't capture a few weeks ago, and aren't fully capturing yet, that may be captured by the time the election rolls around. (This is an explanation of why the observation of not doing radically better than polling in primaries is consistent with polls being behind now.)
(cf  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs5FukqWEAAli_C.jpg:large  for alleged proof of pollster fraud.)  

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Summary of Model Findings To Date

The model is presently finding a lot of evidence for a monster vote being somewhat missed by the polls, and in spite of giving it only a .1 prior and offering some evidence against it, it is being assigned a 95% likelihood.

Given that the model finds the polls at the moment give Trump a 45% chance (using the fivethirtyeight.com  calculation), and the monster vote boosts that, so the topic is confident that Trump will be elected absent an October surprise or an assasination. Please feel free to add evidence against if you know of any.

Since there is a history of both Presidential assassinations and October surprises, and since its evident Trump has extensive, extremely motivated, powerful enemies, these can't be discounted entirely.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Assuming monster vote exists, some likelihood it persists if Hillary replaced.

I'm going to figure 3/4.

0.75 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0