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TOPIC HISTORY

The Polls Arent Skewed, Trump Really is losing Badly



Statements

Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
STATEMENT I claimed they manifestly are slanting the news coverage. You don't seem to be disputing that. And this makes plausible slanting polls.

If they are slanting the news coverage-- and nobody seems to dispute that, for example multiple media people have lost their jobs just for broaching the subject of Hillary's health, for example news organizations have been caught photoshopping larger crowds than Hillary actually draws-- and manifestly slanting the debates as well, and it can't be questioned that the questioning in the first debate was slanted, both in how it was directed (completely asymmetric)-- if they can do that, its very plausible they could be slanting the polls as well. 
Its not proof they are, but it takes us out of the realm where we see them as trustworthy.

And also, btw, they can easily slant the polls quite a bit just through confirmation bias, since there's at least as much art as science in the normal polling process.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-10-05 19:51:03.0
STATEMENT Trump really is losing badly

Trump really is losing badly

0.0 Eric Details 2016-10-05 19:20:40.0
CITATION Zip Question and Answer App shows Trump winning in a landslide

 

LOS ANGELES — Despite a majority of opinion polls showing the 2016 presidential election going to Democrat Hillary Clinton, a smartphone app developer says his data suggests challenger Donald Trump will be the victor.

“Based on the stats we see, he looks strong,” says Ric Militi, co-founder of San Diego-based Crazy Raccoons, maker of the Zip question and answer app. His app poses questions and polls responses based on an average of 100,000 daily users. “I go with Trump, based on what we see.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/?siteID=je6NUbpObpQ-IV6MrUkWwK5ikV69XC0x0Q 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION USDailyWire poll Trump leads clinton by 6

https://usdailywire.com/2016/08/18/trump-leads-clinton-by-6/ 

Note https://usdailywire.com/about/ USDailyWire claims that, because of their proprietary methodology, "the USDW is the only Public Opinion Polling Organization that allows complete anonymity to respondents, while still using traditional identification measures to classify responses and represent a fair demographic of the United States voting public. "

 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Polls promising more anonymity such as online polls seem to consistently favor Trump by large margins 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Online polls are less reliable

Online Polls are:
a) Targeted at a narrower demographic (people who use the internet)
b) More easily fooled (see the Moot for TIME person of the year Marblecake fiasco)
c) Taken less seriously (more prone to silly answers).

1.0 LeftRightWatermelon Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Trump is more likely to fix a broken system

Voting trump because the system is broken is only a good idea if Trump is more likely to fix the system.

1.0 LeftRightWatermelon Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Systematic change has not been mentioned as part of Trump's agenda

He's talked a lot about the system being rigged, but he hasn't actually said anything in the way of how he's going to fix it. In fact some of his remarks imply the opposite.

Washington Examiner Trump Quote

1.0 LeftRightWatermelon Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT "It's Plausible because they are?"

You say it's plausable because it's happening without any clear proofs. (Predictions aren't proofs, see also "Dewey Defeats Truman".)

1.0 LeftRightWatermelon Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION The Polls Aren't Skewed, Trump Really is losing Badly (As Argued by FiveThirtyEight)

This Topic represents the arguments presented in the fivethirtyeight article and some responses to them. Please contribute if you have a valid point to make. 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/ 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Historically a number of Candidates have had big crowds and lost

Or you point to Trump’s rally sizes, though George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Mitt Romney in 2012 all had large crowd sizes and lost.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/ 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Democrats typically do lead in party affiliation. The polls are not unfairly skewed pro-Democrat

The basic premise of the unskewers is wrong. Most pollsters don’t weight their results by party self-identification, which polls get by asking a question like “generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….” 

Democrats usually lead in party identification

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/ 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Its implausible the Media would conspire to slant the polls

 

Think about what that means: The website is saying that a large number of professional pollsters who make their living trying to provide accurate information — and have a good record of doing so — are all deliberately biasing the polls and aren’t correcting for it. Like many conspiracy theories, that seems implausible.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/ 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION It is highly plausible because they are manifestly all slanting the news coverage

 

Also it was completely predictable. The whole system is rigged and the whole establishment is against Trump. They rigged the Democrat Nomination as Demonstrated by the emails.

The rigging of the polls was in fact predicted
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/07/28/beware-the-predictable-polling-onslaught-to-paint-the-potemkin-village/ 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The important news since the convention has hugely favored Trump, but the media have broadcast propaganda instead

 

Since his peak, the news has been dominated by things like Trump supposedly kicking a baby out of his huge talk, and Trump having interchanges with a Muslim Dad who was paid by the Clinton foundation and has long publicly promoted Sharia as trumping the constitution. Meanwhile the events that have occurred include:

  1. Trump giving a major economic speech laying out his plan which 85% of the people agree will help them according to a poll,
  2. Hillary and Obama flying ransom into Iran
  3. Iran executing a nuclear physicist who had been spying for the US, apparently based on Hillary's emails,
  4. Numerous terror events in Europe that Hillary's plans seem likely to import here.
  5. Hillary's episodes calling into serious question her health that the media is also whitewashing.
  6. Hillary's continual inability to draw more than a few hundred people and the media whitewashing same, including by outright photoshopping, while Trump continues to turn away thousands at every talk.

 

I would say, if its true that Trump has declined, it shows the power of the montone propaganda media and thus provides one more and very strong reason to vote against it and for Trump.

 

What you want in a media system is ostensible diversity that conceals an actual uniformity. --Joseph Goebbels

 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT If the Extensive Propaganda Effort Has Been This Effective, Thats Another Reason To Vote Trump

We've already seen from the emails that the Democratic Nomination Was Fixed. Now We Observe Media Control is In On the Fix. Do you really want to live in a country that is controlled by a mafia like this?

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION It was predicted that the media would fix the polls, based on evidence, and polls that there is reason to believe are unfixed show opposite.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/07/28/beware-the-predictable-polling-onslaught-to-paint-the-potemkin-village/ 

Predicted the polling onslaught based on:

 The Pennsylvania polling from Suffolk U is bizarrely disconnected from current reality.  Also today,  Rasmussen says Clinton leads by 5 points amid “unaffiliated” voters.  Keep in mind just last week the same Rasmussen poll had Trump leading by 20 points (44/24), with those SAME unaffiliated voters. Did unaffiliated Rasmussen voters swing 25 points in a week?… of course not.  That’s silly.  But that’s what they presented today.   The week prior to last week it was Trump +11 (43/32) with the same voters.

 

Also some unafilliated polls that may be fairer show Trump leading.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/08/05/north-carolina-poll-donald-trump-gains-32-of-black-voters-leads-4642-overall/

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION We heard stuff like this four years ago

If any of this sounds familiar — and if I sound a little exasperated — it’s probably because we went through this four years ago. Remember UnSkewedPolls.com? 

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/  

 

 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT This is True, But just one data point, hardly a proof, and Romney's Software Glitch Glommed His Turnout, So Maybe Those Polls Were Bad Too

This is True, But just one data point, hardly a proof, and Romney's Software Glitch Glommed His Turnout, So Maybe Those Polls Were Bad Too. If that cost him several points, then the polls were wrong at the end.

So while I don't think the polls four years ago are reason to beleve the aren't fair this time, I also don't think they are strong evidence that they are fair this time. Basically this data point is not that pertinent to the present question, because the operation against Trump is somewhat unparalleled.

 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Pat Caddell describes the bias also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4grXyM_IUk Democrat Pat Caddell has words on Reuters Polling & Debate Scheduling 

 

Says its rigged.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Aside From Bezos' anti-trust/cheap labor/tarrif concerns with Trump's program, the journos themselves fear and hate Trump from Shame

 

Here Bezos in the title refers to the owner of the Washington Post and Amazon, but all the other big tech firms have similar concerns and similarly do the billionaire owners of the rest of the media. Trumps whole economic plan is counter to Amazon's interests in cheap labor here, cheap imported goods from China, and gaining a monopoly position in  the market, and recall Trump and Bezos have already had words on the subject through Twitter and such. And likewise all the billionaires and tech owners and media owners have a vested interest in keeping

the rigged system going that they have profited from.

 

But in addition to that, the journos themselves fear and hate Trump from Shame.  The media hates Trump because they are scared their shameful complicity in the deeply pathological lies will be exposed under a Trump administration. For example, Benghazi and the video, where the media plainly covered for Obama and Hillary during the last election. For example, racial issues where they could cover the cases with innocent victims, like Garner, not the cases they focus on with thug victims, which they know divide rather than unite the people. And it goes far beyond there.

https://pjmedia.com/diaryofamadvoter/2016/08/09/real-reason-msm-hates-trump/  

 

 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0