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The Evidence Is Weak That Vaccines Have Saved More Lives than They Have Cost


Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
CITATION Polio, as defined in 1955, is increasing not going away. The eradication of polio is a redefinition.


"Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) is just another name for what would have been called polio in 1955, and is used to describe a sudden onset of paralysis."

See image below for recent data showing between 1996 and 2010 combined AFP plus "polio" has increased from 18,000 to 100,000 and see link below for more discussion and background. 



1.0 Eric Details 2016-10-06 14:31:08.0
CITATION The Definition of Pertussis Was Changed Just When They Released the Vaccine Greatly Narrowing It

 Why Do Pertussis Vaccines Fail? 

James D. Cherry  Pediatrics 2012;129;968; originally published online April 23, 2012; DOI: 10.1542/peds.2011-2594 Free version: 

"...The first reason, and perhaps the most important one, is that our estimates of vaccine efficacy have been inflated because of case definition.3–11 At the time of the pediatric diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine efficacy trials in the early 1990s, it was hoped that a universal case definition could be developed so that the results of the various trials could be compared. To this end, the World Health Organization (WHO) casedefinition was developed.3 The primary case definition requiredlaboratory confirmation and $21 days of paroxysmal cough. I was a member of the WHO committee and disagreed with the primary case definition because it was clear at that time that this definition would eliminate a substantial number of cases and therefore inflate reported efficacy values.4–11 ...

In addition, even these latter efficacies are likely inflated owing to [Extensive cited descriptions of orbserver bias]."

Hat tip to 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Extensive further evidence smallpox vaccination was ineffective 

Re: Polio eradication: a complex end game

06 June 2012

Dr Viera Scheibner (PhD)

Part 2


"Deleterious effects and ineffectiveness of smallpox vaccination have been among the main smallpox issues discussed in medical papers for a long time. In 1928, the British Medical Journal (21 January: 115-116) published an article by Dr Garrow showing that the fatality rate among the vaccinated cases of smallpox in England and Wales in 1923 and 1926, in those over 15 years of age, was higher than among the unvaccinated. Dr Parry, one of the contributors to the discussion, summarised the questions raised by Dr Garrow:


1. How is it that small-pox is five times as likely to be fatal in the vaccinated as in unvaccinated.

2. How is it that, as the percentage of people vaccinated has steadily fallen from about 85 in 1870 to about 40 in 1925, the number of people attacked with variola has declined pari passu and the case mortality has progressively lessened? The years with least vaccination have been the years of least small-pox and of least mortality.

3. How is it that in some of our best vaccinated towns – for example Bombay and Calcutta – small-pox is rife, while in some of our worst vaccinated towns, such as Leicester, it is almost unknown?

4. How is it that something like 80 percent of the cases admitted into the Metropolitan Asylum Board small-pox hospitals have been vaccinated whilst only 20 percent have not been vaccinated?

5. How is it that in Germany, the best vaccinated country in the world, there are more deaths [from smallpox] in proportion to the population than in England – for example, in 1919, 28 deaths in England, 707 in Germany; in 1920, 30 deaths in England, 354 in Germany. In Germany, in 1919 there were 5,012 cases of small-pox with 6 deaths. What is the explanation?

6. Is it possible to explain the lessened incidence and fatality of small-pox on the same grounds as the lessened incidence and fatality of other infectious fevers – namely, as due to improved hygiene and administrative control?

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION There's Considerable Evidence That Vaccines While Perhaps Eradicating Wild Polio Are Spreading Vaccine Polio Strain Which May Be Worse 

Re: Polio eradication: a complex end game

Polio eradication by vaccination? Part 1 06 June 2012 Dr Viera Scheibner (PhD)


"They also noted that while India was declared polio-free in 2011, at the same time there were 47500 cases of NPAFP, which increased in direct proportion to the number of polio vaccine doses received. Independent studies showed that children identified with NPAFP “were at more than twice the risk of dying than those with wild polio infection”.

According to their report, nationally, the NPAFP rate is now twelve times higher than expected. In the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – which have pulse polio vaccination every month – the NPAFP rate is 25 and 35 fold higher than the international norms (Ramesh Shankar, Mumbai 2012).

Ron Law (Assaulting alternative medicine: worthwhile or witch hunt? 10 March 2012) recently addressed the polio situation in India: eradication has been achieved by re-naming the disease. Poliomyelitis paralysis which occurs even after 30+ vaccination doses, is now called acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) or polio-like paralysis; hardly a great success of vaccination or comfort to the parents of the more than 60 000 affected children.

Earlier redefinition of poliomyelitis had been introduced in the US: a disease with residual paralysis which resolves within 60 days changed into a disease with residual paralysis which persists for more than 60 days. Cases of paralysis which resolve within 60 days (99% of cases) are diagnosed as viral or aseptic meningitis.

According to MMWR (1997; 32[29]: 384-385), there are 30 000 to 50 000 cases of viral/aseptic meningitis per year in the US. Considering that in the pre-vaccine era the vast majority (99%) of the reported cases were non-paralytic (corresponding to aseptic or viral meningitis), vaccination has actually increased the incidence of poliomyelitis. Before mass vaccination there were a few hundred or few thousand cases of polio in some outbreaks, while now it is up to 50 000 cases every year.

Figure 1 in Schonberger et al. (1984. Control of poliomyelitis in the United States. Rev infect dis; 6 (Suppl 2: S424-S426) shows the steady downward trend in the incidence of poliomyelitis stopping, and indeed increasing, when DPT and P vaccination became mandatory in the US in the mid-seventies.

The experience in northern Namibia showed that with no polio vaccination children developed natural immunity to the wild polio virus without developing paralysis (Biellik et al. 1994. Poliomyelitis in Namibia. Lancet 344: 1776).

The vaccine viruses inactivation by a 14-day treatment with 1:4000 formaldehyde solution is the subject to asymptotic factor making the inactivation incomplete (Gerber et al. 1961. Inactivation of vacuolating virus (SV 40) by formaldehyde, Proc Soc Exp Biol & Med; 108: 205-209), and, Fenner (1962. The reactivation of animal viruses. BMJ; July 21: 135-142) showed that the process is also reversible.

Evans et al. (1985. Nature ; 314: 548-550) demonstrated “Increased neurovirulence associated with a single nucleotide change in a noncoding region of the Sabin type 3 poliovirus genome”.

The only way to eradicate paralytic poliomyelitis is to stop vaccinating.

 "Conclusions. Based on now more than 120 years of published orthodox medical research, vaccines of any kind, smallpox and polio including, not only increase their recipients’ susceptibility to the targeted diseases, but also to related and unrelated bacterial and viral infections. Hence outbreaks mainly in the vaccinated who also infect contacts. The best way to stop epidemics is to stop vaccinating and let nature do its own thing."

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT While the Purported Saved Lives From Polio And/Or Smallpox May Be Illusory, the Victims of the Vaccines Are Many and Established 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The Evidence Is Weak That Vaccines Have Saved More Lives than They Have Cost. More Likely Net Loss.

The evidence that smallpox vaccine was instrumental in ending smallpox is weak. The effectiveness of the vaccine is quite questionable given the published record. The disease declined along with many unvaccinated others, and its highly unclear whether the vaccine helped. When the disease was finally eradicated, it was the culmination of a huge campaign of early quarantine.

The smallpox vaccine is acknowledged to have killed almost as many as smallpox in vaccinated countries in much of the 19th century. These deaths are undisputed to my knowledge, but the putative savings seem illusory.

The evidence that polio vaccine was instrumental in ending polio is weak. According to an article publiished in JAMA 1959, less than a third of the patients at the Detroit "Polio" epidemic even had the polio virus or antibodies to it. Perhaps "polio" epidemics had some other cause, such as DDT. The polio vaccine is also acknoweldged to have caused many cases of paralysis and polio and to continuing to cause cases of vaccine-derived polio. Again, these cases appear established, but any gains may be illusory.

Tetanus deaths have fallen by far more than can be attributed to the vaccine. The vaccine may prevent some deaths, but it is rare for anyone in the country to die of tetanus now, and the vaccine is only protective by maybe a factor of 50. So if nobody was vaccinated, only at most some dozens of people may die. Not good, but compare the downsides below.

Rabies maybe has saved some people.

The evidence that other vaccines have saved large numbers of lives is very weak. Measles cases are down since measles vaccine was introduced, but the number of deaths per year in the country was only a few hundred before the vaccine in widespread use, and had been falling dramatically, down 99.96% before vaccine introduction in England. Very possible measles deaths would have gone away as fast or faster without vaccine. 

The evidence that vaccine induced herd immunity exists and is helping is weak. In fact, there's evidence vaccines are causing repeated outbreaks.

There is significantly stronger evidence for vaccines causing harm in a variety of ways: including contributing to infant deaths, and likely infecting humanity with SV-40 and Chimpanzee Coryza Virus,  and possibly HIV. Chimpanzee Coryza Virus, called RSV in humans, kills millions worldwide. Mostly this is laid out in a separate topic: 
Assuming vaccines are causing damage, we can estimate the carnage from some of the regressions.
Regression indicates that each 7 vaccines in the national series is associated with an increased IMR of 1/1000. Extrapolating from that estimate, vaccines kill 4/1000 infants in the first year in the US. If vaccines are responsible for the autism epidemic, and there's virtually no evidence they aren't and considerable evidence they are, they are seriously harming another 2% or more of the population. 
HIV kills a few tens of thousand in the US. SV-40 contributes to some cancers. Vaccine aluminum causes extreme obesity in mice, perhaps vaccines are contributing the the epidemics of obesity and diabetes. 7% of the children now have autoimmune problems and the average child more than one  chronic ailment such as allergies or neurodermatitis in a German study.


1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The Evidence is Weak that Smallpox Vaccine was Instrumental in the Eradication of Small pox. 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The Evidence is Weak that Polio Vaccine has been instrumental in eradicating polio 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Tetanus Vaccine May Be Saving Some Lives, But Probably at most Dozens per year

I found an interesting study that will let me say something positive about vaccines for a change: 

The authors looked at all the reported US national reports of child tetanus cases for the years 1992-2000. They found there were 15 cases in the 8 year span. No deaths, but some hospitalizations. 12 of the 15 were un-vaccinated. (I’m assuming all or most cases get reported, which I think is likely. Otherwise you’d need a factor for reporting frequency in the back of the envelope calculations below.)


The first thing their survey tells you is, the tetanus vaccine seems to protect against tetanus. Something like 90% of the population is vaccinated according to the CDC, yet only 20% of the tetanus cases are. That suggests the vaccine is something like 97% effective at protecting against tetanus, which I think makes it probably more effective than any other I know of. If every child were vaccinated the number of cases over the 8 year period might well have dropped from 15 to the 3 vaccinated cases they had or maybe 4 if they got another.


The second thing it tells you is, even if all the vaccinated had been UNvaccinated so they all got it 30 times as much, you might only expect 100 cases nationwide over the 8 year span. (How does that compare to the number of serious complications from the vaccine?) The chance of an unvaccinated child getting tetanus over the 8 year span seems maybe to be something like 1/500,000 or less, figuring that roughly 50 million vaccinated kids generated 3 cases so vaccinated maybe has 3/50 million, unvaccinated maybe 30 times as great or 1/500k.

(The 10% unvaccinated are maybe 5 million who generated roughly 10 cases, which checks the math.)

Those are childhood cases, but I'll assume adult cases is some small multiple, so it seems without vaccination you'd have dozens of cases per year.


According to this history : there used to be 200 cases per 100K people per year. (Caveat: This may be an overestimate for children, so I’m not quite apples to apples to the above figures which are of children. There maybe should be a fudge factor for that.) A frequency of 1/500. So tetanus frequency has dropped by a factor of maybe roughly 30000, of which maybe a factor 30 was due to the vaccine and 1000 was due to other factors unknown. I don’t see how this drop can possibly be attributed to herd immunity, since tetanus is not passed between humans. So tetanus is another example of a disease that largely vanished where a vaccine seems NOT to have been the major factor in the vanishing.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The Evidence is Weak That Measles Vaccine Has Saved Many Lives If Any 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION "Smallpox and its Eradication" by Fenner et al published by WHO gives several citations to measurements in excess of 94% Vaccine Efficacy 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The Evidence for Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity is Weak. In fact Vaccines May Be Preventing Eradication of Diseases 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Fenner et al. Consider an Individual to be Unvaccinated Whenever They Find No Vaccination Scar. This is the Purest of Confirmation Bias.

The claims of vaccine efficacy against smallpox are based on the claim that they looked at smallpox victims in epidemics in third world countries and mostly couldn't find a vaccination scar. They are looking for a tiny old scar in people covered with pustules, including quite possibly pustules right on top of the scar, and probably not looking all that hard. They were hoping not to find it. This is the purest of confirmation bias.

Wouldn't even be all that surprising if a vaccinated individual who later gets smallpox preferentially gets a pustule right on top of the scar.

The cognitive bias inherent in this approach is extensively supported by Alfred Russel Wallace, the co-inventor of Evolution, in his book VACCINATION A DELUSION, Its Penal Enforcement a Crime: PROVED BY THE OFFICIAL EVIDENCE IN THE REPORTS OF THE ROYAL COMMISSION” BY ALFRED RUSSEL WALLACE LL.D. DUBL., D.C.L. OXON., F.R.S., ETC. (1898) 

 For example he quotes:"I have always classed those as 'unvaccinated,' when no scar, presumably arising from [[p. 26]] vaccination, could be discovered. Individuals are constantly seen who state that they have been vaccinated, but upon whom no cicatrices can be traced. In a prognostic and a statistic point of view, it is better, and, I think, necessary, to class them as unvaccinated" (Dr. Gayton's Report for the Homerton Hospital for 1871-2-3).

 "In the Second Report of the Commission, pp. 219-20, a witness declared that out of six persons who died of small-pox and were reported by the medical officer of the Union to have been unvaccinated, five were found to have been vaccinated, one being a child who had been vaccinated by the very person who made the report, and another a man who had been twice revaccinated in the militia (Q. 6730-42). One other case may be given. In October, 1883, three unvaccinated children were stated in the Registrar-General's weekly return of deaths in London to have died of small-pox, "being one, four, and nine years of age, and all from 3, Medland Street, Stepney." On enquiry at the [[p. 27]] address given (apparently by oversight in this one case) the mother stated that the three children were hers, and that "all had been beautifully vaccinated." This case was investigated by Mr. J. Graham Spencer, of 33, Rigault Road, Fulham Park Gardens, and the facts were published in the local papers and also in The Vaccination Inquirer of December, 1883.


 Also they are I think ignoring the hidden factor that people who were poorer and more malnourished were likely way more likely because of that to (a) get smallpox and (b) not have gotten vaccinated.

BTW, worth pointing out that smallpox vaccine, unlike every other I know of, isn't even using the same virus. They used cowpox, that was the "breakthrough". 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION There's Pretty Good Evidence Vaccines Have Killed and Injured a Lot of People Iatrogenically

For a detailed examination of the evidence regarding vaccine iatrogenics see the attached assumption ele28 or go directly to the diagram cited by ele28 on the subject: 

Based on the evidence there, we will assume that vaccines are causing infant death, aluminum toxicity, ASD, and have introduced several unwanted viruses into humanity.  To get a very rough estimate of the number of people killed or maimed, we'll look at a few estimates here:

If you regress infant mortality rates against number of vaccines in the national series over the developed nations, you find that for each 7 vaccines is associated with an additional 1/1000 mortality in developed nations. By that measure the US vaccine series is estimated to be killing 4/1000 babies in the first year. In the US, that would be about 16,000 dead/yr.

If you regress vaccine compliance against ASD and SLI accross the 50 states, you find for each 1% increase in compliance an additional 680 children ASD or SLI. By that measure about 60,000 are estimated to be given ASD or SLI.

In addition Bishop et al found each additional 40mcg/kg of parenteral aluminum in preemies cost about a mental development point. Linear extrapolation to the 4000mcg in the vaccine series first 6 months suggests its maybe costing the entire vaccinated population 15 IQ points. 

A number of viruses have or may have entered humanity through vaccines. 

Among those are:

Chimpanzee Coryza Virus seems to have entered humanity via contaminated polio vaccine and become RSV, which hospitalizes 100K infants per year in the US and kills millions worldwide.

HIV may very well have also come from contaminated polio vaccine.

SV-40 may cause half of Hodgkins Lymphoma as well as other cancers


1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION There's Evidence Polio Virus Didn't Even Cause the Polio Epidemics, so How Could the Vaccine End it?

Before the polio vaccine, Doctors used to routinely call any childhood paralysis polio. It played well on insurance forms. Here’s an analysis of the Detroit polio epidemic of 1958.  They had a big epidemic, but when they went in and examined the cases, it turned out that less than 1/3 of the patients even had polio virus, and whether it is what was causing their problem is of course even then unclear. Maybe they would have beat it easy without some other factor (eg DDT).

So how did the polio vaccine stop a disease where at least 2/3 of the cases didn’t have the virus? It seems plausible that most polio cases back in the day were mostly or entirely DDT poisoning. Polio is normally a very mild disease. DDT exposure makes you more vulnerable.    

Supposedly rich people used to spray DDT around to keep bugs away, prevent polio. (Here's a paper arguing that FDR didn't even have polio:  ) In so doing, some maybe gave their kids polio, much like parents today, thinking to protect their kids, seem to be vaccinating them and making them sick.


Here's another discussion of the history of polio. 
It discusses in detail how the definition of polio was changed when they introduced the vaccine, how the timing of polio epidemics suggests that they were actually caused by DDT spraying campaigns, how the early polio vaccine also caused increase in polio cases, and more about how the contamination of polio vaccine by SV-40 was discovered and ignored by authorities and covered up.


1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Most of the population has measles titers so low, if exposed they will likely become at least sub-clinically infected and contagious

Chen et al, Measles antibody: reevaluation of protective titers
reported on data from a measles outbreak that came just after a school blood drive. So they had before and after titer information on the students. They observed that 7 out of 8 donors with titers below 120 got clinical measles, compared with none having titer above 120. So a titer of 120 appears to protect against getting clinical measles. However, 70% of donors with titers between 120 and 1050 reported symptoms without getting the rash, as did 30% of donors with titers above 1050, and about 70% of patients in the 120-1050 group also had their titers go up by a factor of more than 4, indicating that they had had a measles virus infection, even though short of clinical measles.

So the conclusion: below 120, vulnerable to measles. Above 120, won’t get clinical measles, but may get ill without rash and become contagious for measles. Below 1050, 70% chance of getting ill and becoming contagious for measles. Above 1050, less than 30%.

Le Baron et al, Persistence of measles antibodies after 2 doses of measles vaccine in a postelimination environment
studied how long titers persist in kids after their last booster. The results are plain in their Figure 3. They report that around 95% of recipients of the MMR have a titer over the 120 that Chen et al predict should prevent one from getting clinical measles for at least 10 years. (After that the percentage vulnerable starts rising rapidly.) That’s the good news.

The bad news is, they report that 2 years after their last booster, more than a third of kids will have titers below 1050, the region where, according to Chen et al, such kids will have a 70% chance of becoming ill and contagious if exposed, although they won’t show the rash. And 30% of kids with titers not far above that, and there are many of those, may also become ill and contagious.

Another study confirms this. Vaccine. 2011 Jun 15;29(27):4485-91. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.04.037. Epub 2011 May 1. A large observational study to concurrently assess persistence of measles specific B-cell and T-cell immunity in individuals following two doses of MMR vaccine. Haralambieva IH, Ovsyannikova IG, O'Byrne M, Pankratz VS, Jacobson RM, Poland GA.

Reports only 23% of people have a PRMN titer of over 1050, 7.4 years after their last MMR booster.

Putting this together, almost everybody in the population over 13 or so is susceptible to at least sub-clinical infection. 

This is why, I expect, you see constant epidemics in near 100% vaccinated populations, and herd immunity is nothing but a marketing slogan of the vaccine industry. For example, New York State boasts a 97% compliance rate for MMR in kindergarten .
Yet they have measles outbreaks every year or two, including a measles outbreak starting with a fully vaccinated index case
and a measles outbreak with 90% of the patients vaccinated

 In fact, it seems very likely that the pool of vaccinated carriers may well be keeping measles from being eradicated. As we saw in the NY case (although she apparently had a rash), a vaccinated carrier may not recognize they have measles or may not be quarantined, preventing the disease from being eradicated. Measles may travel from vaccinee to vaccinee, not getting the characteristic rash or being recognized, until finally it lights into an unvaccinated individual or one whose titer has faded below 120, and is declared measles.
If we persist in vaccinating, the disease may never go away, whereas it might well be that if we simply stopped vaccinating, the disease would vanish from the means that have likely eradicated most of the other diseases that have gone away: quarantine and better nutrition.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Measles deaths were down 98% Before the Vaccine Introduced

Measles Deaths had fallen by 99.96% in England from their peak before the vaccine was even introduced.

The measles vaccine was in widespread use in the US in 1966, and that year there were 261 deaths down from 6000/year  in the 1910's on 92 million people.

So death rate had fallen 98% before vaccination in the US, could well have continued falling to zero now even without vaccination. 

At most, would be hundreds not more based on before vaccination.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Vaccinated Can Carry,Spread Pertussis And Made Prone to B. Parapertussis And Published Observations Explicitly Deny Herd Immunity

A study showed that vaccinated baboons (but not naturally immune baboons) when exposed to pertussis carried the virus and could spread it for 35 days. Seemingly, as titers fade, the carriers take very long times to clear the virus if exposed. The reason for this may be what is known as "Original Antigenic Sin", the hypothesis that when you are vaccinated, your body ties itself down to one mode of fighting that virus, and gives up on its other defenses. So when titers fade, your defences are diminished.  

 A new paper indicates pertussis is in fact spreading through asymptomatic transmission of vaccinated humans. 

An old paper: Whooping cough and pertussis vaccine: a comparison of risks and benefits in Britain during the period 1968-83. G T Stewart Dev Biol Stand. 1985;61:395-405. PMID: 3835080  

reports: "There was no evidence of a herd immunity sufficient to protect infants below age for vaccination." and "It is concluded that, in children living in non-deprived circumstances in Britain, the risk of pertussis vaccine during the period 1970-83 exceeded those of whooping cough. In some deprived sectors, the risks from whooping cough might have been marginally higher but there was no evidence that this was associated with any increase in deaths or permanent disabilities." 

Also evidence in a mouse model shows that pertussis vaccinees actually had a 40 fold increase in a different pertussis infection:

We show that aP vaccination helped clear B. pertussis but resulted in an approximately 40-fold increase in B. parapertussis lung colony-forming units (CFUs). Such vaccine-mediated facilitation of B. parapertussis did not arise as a result of competitive release; B. parapertussis CFUs were higher in aP-relative to sham-vaccinated hosts regardless of whether infections were single or mixed. Further, we show that aP vaccination impedes host immunity against B. parapertussis-measured as reduced lung inflammatory and neutrophil responses. Thus, we conclude that aP vaccination interferes with the optimal clearance of B. parapertussis and enhances the performance of this pathogen. Our data raise the possibility that widespread aP vaccination can create hosts more susceptible to B. parapertussis infection. 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION The evidence suggests smallpox vaccine was not very effective and unimportant in eradication

The only reason I've seen to believe the vaccine was important in the eradication, is the timing, that the disease was eradicated after the vaccine was universal. That would be at best 1 bit of information, not a very strong piece of evidence. A lot of things happened before the disease was eradicated. But in fact, the timing argues strongly *against* the vaccine being important in the eradication.

Smallpox had regular epidemics in 100% vaccinated populations in England, Sweden, Massachussetts, and Germany, for more than a century. Here's some graphs showing the smallpox mortality rates spiking up again and again in completely vaccinated populations.  ) There was a city in England, Leicester, that was famous for repealing mandatory vaccination, and concentrating on quarantine instead, which had much better results avoiding smallpox than all the vaccinated cities around it.   (see also Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and The Forgotten History by Suzanne Humphries MD, Roman Bystrianyk (2013)

"In the epidemic of 1871, of 30,472 cases of smallpox, no less than 29,429 were vaccinated, as shown in the documents of the State." G.F. Kolb, member of the Royal Statistical Commission of Bavaria. (Letter of 1882)
(The other quotations at that link are of interest too, 12 historical excerpts on the subject of Smallpox effectiveness.)

According to the WHO report, the last outbreak of smallpox on the planet, in Yugoslavia in 1972, the index case was vaccinated a month before, and 3/4 of the adult cases had been vaccinated.  Epidemiologic aspects of smallpox in Yugoslavia in 1972 / by S. Litvinjenko, B. Arsi, S. Borjanovi  Issue Date: 1973 Publisher: Geneva, Switzerland : World Health Organization Description: WHO/SE/73.57

So was the vaccine really conferring immunity, or just a placebo?


Here's Larry Brilliant giving a TED talk on how smallpox was eradicated, which involved a massive quarantine campaign that knocked on literally billions of doors to catch cases early and quarantine them. 
"The key to eradicating smallpox was early detection, early response. I'm going to ask you to repeat that: early detection, early response. Can you say that?"

"A surveillance system was necessary, because what we needed was early detection, early response. So we searched and we searched, and we found every case of smallpox in India. We had a reward. We raised the reward.We continued to increase the reward. We had a scorecard that we wrote on every house. And as we did that, the number of reported cases in the world dropped to zero. And in 1980, we declared the globe free of smallpox.

9:37It was the largest campaign in United Nations history, until the Iraq war. " 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION The evidence vaccines actually stopped diseases is mostly just timing-- which is inherently weak, but for vaccines its terrible.

The evidence vaccines cured diseases is mostly that the vaccines were discovered before the diseases went away. But other things happened before the diseases went away.Why focus on the vaccines? 

For example, nutrition improved. Refrigeration and better trade meant people got fresh fruit and vegetables year round. That may have been most of the difference by itself. The decline of scurvy as a killer pretty much mirrors the decline of smallpox as a killer. They started putting vitamin d in the milk and distributing it in school. Vitamins A, C, and D are important for resistance to various bugs including,  doctors have reported, measles and polio. And many other nutrients may be important as well in immunity to particular diseases. For example, Keshan's Disease is devastating to those with a selenium deficiency, no problem for anyone else's immune system.

 Society became much better at isolating viruses and bacteria, so they couldn't pass from one afflicted individual to another and died out. This happened because of better sanitation, better sewage, quarantine. 

Another problem with the timing evidence allegedly supporting vaccines causing decline in infectious disease: they invariably change the clinical definition of the disease exactly when they released the vaccine, thus corrupting the data. Polio was often diagnosed for any childhood paralysis before the vaccine, but after the vaccine that wouldn't do, so you had to have paralysis actually caused by the virus. Likewise measles was likely substantially overdiagnosed before the vaccine, and its definition changed, and so on for probably every vaccine.  Pertussis was changed just when they introduced DTaP.

Diseases where there was no vaccine, or no widely administered vaccine, vanished alongside ones with vaccines. For example Bubonic plague, scurvy, scarlet fever, typhoid, cholera, tuberculosis. 

Finally, the timing does not really suggest the vaccines were the key factor because all of the vaccine diseases, except smallpox, were in decline well before the vaccines were in widespread use. Measles mortality was down 98% in the US, an astonishing 99.96% in England before the vaccine. And for smallpox, there was more than a century of periodic epidemics in 100% vaccinated populations in multiple countries.

I attach one illustrative figure.   

Many more may be found at:   

and at (see also Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and The Forgotten History by Suzanne Humphries MD, Roman Bystrianyk (2013)) 


1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Link to Diagram Establishing that the preponderance of the evidence indicates the vaccine series is causing serious damage

For a detailed examination of the evidence regarding vaccine iatrogenics see 

which establishes: 

The preponderance of the evidence indicates the vaccine series is causing a serious problem like autism spectrum disorder, autoimmune problems, damaged immune system, death, or decreased IQ in a substantial fraction of recipients of the US childhood vaccine series.


  • The proof of this is that the evidence strongly indicates the aluminum in the vaccine series is doing damage, and that animal studies report brain or immune system damage from early or many vaccines,
  • and that peer reviewed studies comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated indicate damage,
  • and that vaccines have been found to have contaminants which have been reported to be continuing to have dire consequences,
  • and that all the epidemiology comparing those who got more vaccines to less indicates vaccines cause damage.
  • There appears to be no methodologically sound peer reviewed papers presenting evidence against the model that multiple different vaccines do cumulative and/or somewhat random damage, such as would be expected from contaminants and cumulative aluminum and vaccines interacting with critical periods of development or self-organized criticality in the immune system. Most papers compare patients who got numerous vaccines to patients who got numerous vaccines, and so are totally insensitive to such vectors.

Also see  for evidence flu shots damage immune systems.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Outbreak of Measles Among Persons With Prior Evidence of Immunity 

Outbreak of Measles Among Persons With Prior Evidence of Immunity, New York City, 2011

Jennifer B. Rosen1, Jennifer S. Rota2, Carole J. Hickman2, Sun Sowers2, Sara Mercader2, Paul A. Rota2, William J. Bellini2, Ada J. Huang3, Margaret K. Doll1, Jane R. Zucker1,2, and Christopher M. Zimmerman1

Clin Infect Dis. (2014)

doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu105

First published online: February 27, 2014

Conclusions. This is the first report of measles transmission from a twice vaccinated individual. 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION A Related Problem is the Vaccine Itself Can Spread Disease 

J Clin Microbiol. 1995 Sep;33(9):2485-8. Detection of measles virus RNA in urine specimens from vaccine recipients.

Rota PA, Khan AS, Durigon E, Yuran T, Villamarzo YS, Bellini WJ.

Abstract:: Analysis of urine specimens by using reverse transcriptase-PCR was evaluated as a rapid assay to identify individuals infected with measles virus. For the study, daily urine samples were obtained from either 15-month-old children or young adults following measles immunization. Overall, measles virus RNA was detected in 10 of 12 children during the 2-week sampling period. In some cases, measles virus RNA was detected as early as 1 day or as late as 14 days after vaccination. Measles virus RNA was also detected in the urine samples from all four of the young adults between 1 and 13 days after vaccination. This assay will enable continued studies of the shedding and transmission of measles virus and, it is hoped, will provide a rapid means to identify measles infection, especially in mild or asymptomatic cases.

For many other examples and citations see: 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0