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TOPIC HISTORY

Will Anthropogenic Global Warming Heat the planet by at least .5 degrees C by 2100.



Statements

Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
CITATION Zharkova et al physics model suggests magnetic field of sun will be very low for next three cycles, likely cooling the earth

After studying full-disc images of the sun’s magnetic field, Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University and colleagues, discovered that the sun’s dynamo is actually made of two components – coming from different depths inside the sun.

The interaction between these two magnetic waves either amplifies solar activity or damps it down. Professor Zharkova’s observations suggest we are due for a prolonged period of low solar activity.

Professor Valentina Zharkova: 

We will see it from 2020 to 2053, when the three next cycles will be very reduced magnetic field of the sun. Basically what happens is these two waves, they separate into the opposite hemispheres and they will not be interacting with each other, which means that resulting magnetic field will drop dramatically nearly to zero. And this will be a similar conditions like in Maunder Minimum. 

What will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response – they are based on this period when the sun has maximum activity — when the sun has these nice fluctuations, and its magnetic field [is] very strong. But we’re approaching to the stage when the magnetic field of the sun is going to be very, very small. 

She suggests it could be a repeat of the so-called Maunder Minimum – a period in the 17th century with little solar activity that may have influenced a cooling on Earth.

Whatever we do to the planet, if everything is done only by the sun, then the temperature should drop similar like it was in the Maunder Minimum. At least in the Northern hemisphere, where this temperature is well protocoled and written. We didn’t have many measurements in the Southern hemisphere, we don’t know what will happen with that, but in the Northern hemisphere, we know it’s very well protocoled. The rivers are frozen. There are winters and no summers, and so on. 

So we only hope because these Maunder Minima will be shorter, the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century was about 65 years, the Maunder Minimum which we expect will be lasting not longer than 30-35 years. 

 

Of course things are not the same as they were in the 17th century – we have a lot more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. And it will be interesting to see how the terrestrial and the solar influences play out.

http://www.thegwpf.com/new-solar-research-raises-climate-questions-triggers-attacks/ 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The earth's climate can be expected to warm by more than .5 degree C by 2100

The evidence established with at least 50% confidence that the earth's climate will be warmer by more than .5 degree Celsius by 2100.
(Note, although predictions of 2 degree warming are often seen, we are starting with the predominance of the evidence favoring warming of at least .5 degree to see first if there is a much weaker claim that can be rigorously established.)

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The evidence shows with at least 90% confidence that human efforts have caused warming of at least .1 degrees C over the last century

The evidence shows with at least 90% confidence that human efforts have caused warming of at least .1 degrees C over the last century.

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT This Needs Proof. Please Add a Proof If You Know of One. Thanks. 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION The North Atlantic has been cooling since 2004

See the image and more evidence at the link.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/21/the-north-atlantic-ground-zero-of-global-cooling/
 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION Even assuming there was warming, how do you know it didn't come from solar activity impact on cloud cover

Solar activity has an important indirect impact on Earth’s cloud cover

The solar wind affects cosmic rays which affect clouds.
Even if the earth were shown to have warmed, how do you know this didn't account for it, not
CO2? But it is predicted the sun will have less activity in the future.
http://www.dtu.dk/english/News/Nyhed?id=b759b038-66d3-4328-bbdc-0b0a82371446
 

1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0