A proof is offered with Proposed probability .9 that it was a murder: ele5, the statement that Scalia was found with a pillow over his head.
Also two Tests are offered, the Judge's reported actions seem much more likely if there is a conspiracy (Likelihood estimate ..77)(ele1) and the reported facts that Scalia was on a corrupt boondoggle, and that the corporate media is burying this, seem much more likely if there is a conspiracy (Likelihood Estimate .83)(ele12).

An assumption of the .77 LE for ele5, is ele3, if it was a homicide, the judge was selected, and that the judge was known to be at least very easy on investigations. This impacts both numeric estimates in ele1.

A challenge(ele14) to the factual nature of ele5, Scalia found with a pillow, the recantation of the Texas owner, is challenged itself by the question of why he said what he did in the first place(ele16), and the likelihood he would recant if there were in fact a conspiracy. This overall challenge is assessed at .5 (meaning it has a half a chance of invalidating the claim.)

The citation news sources are arbitrarily assigned a proposed probability of .8 to represent some skepticism in the media. 

In a peculiar interview with The New York Times just hours after the rally, the Republican presidential nominee stated that the media is “hypocritical” in that they’re causing a hiatus over his “harmless 2nd Amendment jokes,” while at the same time, the same media were “nowhere to be found” when Justice Antonin Scalia passed away. According to Trump, who is rarely seen losing his temper, such hypocrisy is “an obvious sign that the presidential election is rigged,” and that dark forces have “conspired against traditional Americans” in an attempt to rewrite history by appointing the first female President of the United States.

“Justice Scalia was a great man, everybody knows that and agrees on it,” the billionaire businessman said. “And I’ll tell you another thing that’s not a secret – he was killed, he didn’t die, he was killed in a conspiracy that aimed to ensure the Supreme Court never again has a conservative majority. And when you put things like that, it’s pretty obvious who’s behind such a conspiracy. And here’s the interesting bit – when that happened, I don’t know if you recall, but when that happened, not a single major newspaper, online portal or media outlet wrote about it, not the conspiracy, not about Obama, nothing, not one word.”

He continued, “And in my mind, and I’m sure in the mind of every traditional American in this country, there were questions brewing, there was rage over the murder of a good man and a wise man. But like I said, the media for some reason didn’t deem it important enough. Apart from covering that he had died, no indications were made about the why of it all.” Trump then swung the accusation ball over to the other end of the ballpark: “Yet, I make one joke about the 2nd Amendment people and how they could prevent the destruction of the Supreme Court, and all of a sudden, you tell me that I’m being controversial and that I’m instigating and implying violence. This must be a joke.”

That’s when the counter-accusations took off. “You should be ashamed of yourself, you and everybody else who dares to call themselves reporters,” the real estate magnate went off. “You call me racist, misogynous, bigoted, and hypocritical when, all the while, the media is brimming with hypocrisy. Where were you when Justice Scalia was murdered?” Trump started using difficult words. “Where were you when the Democrats wanted to make sure SCOTUS would never again be able to have a conservative majority? You were writing about the stocks on Wall Street and bashing me for wanting to build a wall. However, when I point out the obvious, which is that Hillary Clinton is planning on turning SCOTUS into a liberal catastrophe, I’m labeled as an instigator? You must be out of your mind, quite frankly,” he argued before storming off.

http://politicops.com/trump-the-media-exploded-about-my-2nd-amendment-remarks-but-were-quiet-after-scalias-killed/ 

The proposition is: Scalia was murdered.

Expecting a probability.

In this case, the Judge made decisions without seeing the body, over the telephone. As no examination was done, the Judge factually did not have information adequate to decide whether it was a homicide or a heart attack or a poisoning, or "of natural causes". In fact, the judge reportedly first said it was a heart attack and then changed to "of natural causes". The body was found with a pillow over the head.

I estimate the likelihood the Judge would make such a ruling if ele0 were true and either  the Judge were party to a conspiracy or was selected by a conspiracy would be near 1.

I estimate the likelihood the judge would make such a ruling if it weren't a homicide. that is if ele0 were false, to be low. It would be nice to have some comparable cases if anybody can point at them. However, in this case we have the claim and assumption the Judge actually had a history of being challenged about investigating suspicious deaths. This goes both ways: indicates the Judge is a conspirator, but also suggests if the Judge were unconnected and the topic false, she might have done the same. So I'm going to estimate the Likelihood if Scalia wasn't murdered of this ruling at .3

An assumption of the test is that the judge was a conspirator/accessory, or at least selected to be quick to say natural causes, so we need some kind of prior on this.

This particular judge had been involved in controversial refusal to order investigation in a suspicious death before.
http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/judge-cinderela-cinderella-cindy-guevara-judge-who-ruled-scalia-cause-of-death-certificate-heart-attack-pillow-no-autopsy/ 

So we may conclude that at the least the judge could have been seen as a soft touch and selected for by the conspirators. 

How do you die with a pillow over your head, unless you are suffocated? Or if he didn't die with a pillow over his head, maybe its a message. 

http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/judge-cinderela-cinderella-cindy-guevara-judge-who-ruled-scalia-cause-of-death-certificate-heart-attack-pillow-no-autopsy/

Note, I gave this statement a Proposed Probability of .8 to reflect my lack of 100% confidence in the veracity of stuff I read. Feel free to suggest updates based on more info (or add other sources.)

http://nypost.com/2016/02/15/scalia-found-dead-with-pillow-over-his-head-ranch-owner/

 I'm marking to Proposed Probability .8 out of conservatism.

According to http://www.infowars.com/media-ignores-why-scalia-was-on-free-trip-to-swanky-resort/  Scalia died while on an all expenses paid trip to a swanky remote resort (which of course could have been a lure), paid for by the owner of the resort, for whom Scalia decided a case 6 months prior.

The Corporate media are ignoring this newsworthy event (shouldn't we shine a light on corruption?) as well as downplaying the circumstances of the case. So some kind of fix seems to be in.

I'm going to put the likelihood of this given very high level conspiracy at .9,

and the likelihood of this if there is no conspiracy and Scalia was not murdered at 0.2

I'm going to put the Probability of this test as .5, because nobody else has confirmed (or denied) this report.

The ranch owner has now made media rounds clarifying his comments, saying

'The pillow was against the headboard'

http://mashable.com/2016/02/17/pillow-scalia-clarification/#JWCuEl483Pq3 

If his new version is true, why did he say what he did in the first place?

However, he has a motivation to say the new version,because if investigations start its going to shine light on his hosting the justice who decided in his favor.

I'm giving this a Proposed Probability of 0.5, because its not clear what's going on.