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TOPIC HISTORY

Trump Goes On to Win Republican Nomination: Probability


Statements

Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
TEST The bookies have Trump about 1/2.8 on the eve of Super Tuesday

 

 

The likelihood the bookies would have Trump at +180 if he were going to win they are trying to make .36,

and similarly for the likelihood they would have him at +180 if he were going to lose. they are trying to make .64

 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
CITATION McConnell and other top Republicans Reportedly Plotting All Out War to Force Brokered Convention

http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/27/mcconnell-tells-gop-senators-well-drop-trump-like-a-hot-rock/

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/28/tripwire-alert-the-gope-trigger-the-full-mississippi-onslaught-now-its-war/ 

 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT This is dated info now and not particularly relevant, so this is not a Test of the current value. 1.0 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Trump Goes On To Win the Republican Nomination: Probability 1.0 Spinoza Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT He's winning by more than historic winners at this point, and he's sustained it, and the ratings and crowds have been huge

The Republican debate ratings have been 24 million or so, compared to past years 6 million or so. So people are paying attention early. His poll numbers are higher than historic numbers. Also the establishment and media were after him from the moment he announced, and still he's gotten these numbers. So its not clear what more they have. He's proved himself a political genius, so it seems likely he'll continue to dazzle. 

 0.8 Spinoza Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
TEST The bookies had Trump 5:1 against, back when I wrote this in early January

I estimate the likelihood the bookies would have Trump a longshot if he were a longshot at about .9 However, they are largely about predicting conventional money and I doubt they handle the Trump phenomena as well as arguments on this diagram, so I'm going to place the likelihood they had Trump as a long shot if he was a mortal lock at about .7

 1.0 Spinoza Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT The betting markets and bookies are folding in other models, such as low likelihood a maverick succeeds against establishment 1.0 Spinoza Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Not if he gets assassinated Before the convention

I'll estimate the likelihood of that at .1 . Other outsider candidates have been, such as Wallace and RFK, and Perot claimed to have been intimidated out of the race, so perhaps that's conservative.

 0.2 Spinoza Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0
STATEMENT Getting an absolute majority of the delegates at convention hard, could lose brokered convention I think even with all his following, have to figure at least 1/3 he just doesn't get half the delegates from a stacked system with many delegates not decided by primary, and loses in a brokered convention 0.3 Eric Details 2016-09-28 22:27:34.0

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