Probability Pres. Trump controls the White House in February 2021

Eric
14 Aug 2020
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Statements
Users 2
  Probability Mode
Score   81.89%
Proposed Belief  100%
Eric
14 Aug 2020
TR reply 2 reply 2 reply

Probability Pres. Trump controls the White House in February 2021

  Probability Mode
Score
81.89%
Proposed Belief
100%
Likelihood Estimate given target=True
50.0%
Likelihood Estimate given target=False
50.0%
Likelihood Estimate

Probability Pres. Trump controls the White House in February 2021

Proofs - PRO To Topic
2
Test Statements for Probability Testing
Refutations - CON To Topic
2
Proofs - PRO to Topic
Refutations - CON to Topic
Test Statements for Probability Testing

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green tick
Tentatively Established
Now that trump gets to appoint another Supreme Court Justice, decisions will go his way
Not if he's dead
I agree it's not clear the generals support Trump, but this is too big a rejection
betting sites don't have much predictive power
Trump may well have both the motivation and the power to do this
Democrats have plans for it
So far Trump has outsmarted them in several attempts
They didn't attempt one in 2016
Biden is allegedly ahead in the polls
He is an incumbent
Democrats lead a successful coup
He draws vast crowds wherever he goes or when he speaks
Biden is slightly ahead in online betting
Recent poll by military Times says Biden is leading Trump among active-duty soldiers
As they are counted he gets more votes
This should be a test statement
Betting sites have Biden as a slight favorite
It is not clear that Trump has the full support of the military
His apparent opponent is senile, etc.
Trump wins the election and becomes president
Trump leads a military coup or otherwise retains power after a disputed election or one that is not held
Probability Pres. Trump controls the White House in February 2021

Now that trump gets to appoint another Supreme Court Justice, decisions will go his way. 


There have been a number of  probable attempts to assassinate him. he reportedly had to cancel a Chicago rally because infiltrators were going to rush the stage and attempt to  overwhelm the Secret Service and kill him. Q  claimed that a missile was shot at Air Force One, but foiled by countermeasures. There were news reports and video of a guy who drove weirdly in the direction of the  motorcade. Most recently the Secret Service intercepted a package to him dictating deadly ricine.  

 I expected them to kill him long since so it seems his security is very good. 

 there are lots of professional hits evident in the news today,  and many of the same people who ordered these hits  undoubtably wish him dead and have for four years at least.  so I don't think the odds of their getting him now can be much higher than 5months/48 months. 


The fact that some of the generals are against trump doesn't lower his odds of being able to stage a coup by 80%,  especially since his doing so is likely to follow an obviously  corrupt election,  and the indictment of numerous Democrats for political crimes which is underway.

 it's pretty clear the troops support him. just watch them when he visits a base. he's had plenty of time to move generals around to some extent,  putting loyal ones in useful positions.  if he's going to initiate a coup,  he will have the opportunity to move loyal forces to key  locations before he does so.And other forces even if opposed may not be able to effectively stop him.   it seems quite likely a coup might succeed even if the Army remains neutral or is divided,   or even is opposed  given the arming  and number of his supporters. Don't forget a million bikers for  Trump converged on Washington four years ago Labor Day weekend. It's easy to imagine Trump could  summon up at least a million armed men. I read a claim that wargaming  under the Obama administration supported this ( which may have been the most important reason why Obama didn't try it  after questioning generals about whether they would support him and firing the ones who wouldn't.)

 I'll give this challenge a .5,  which I regard as conservative,  and which will bring the target down to .4


In 2016 they had Hillary  an  88% favorite on election eve. 

 especially for politically sensitive issues where they seem to be rigged.  in 2008 they adjudicated that Obama had closed  Gáuantnamo,  causing my son to lose his bet, and which Obama will wish he had if they send him there. 


Trump may well have both the motivation and  the power to stage a coup. As to power  the military and police seem to strongly support him ( except for some of the generals).  He's had four years  to influence promotions and firings of generals. The combat troops ( in contrast to the support troops) are heavily white males, something over 90%  I read. 

 There were 600 million  guns in America and 12 trillion bullets in 2019, and many more now, and the bulk of these are  most likely owned by trump supporters. In 2016, a million bikers for trump converged on Washington DC Labor Day weekend. 

 As to motivation,  it's not unreasonable to expect that if the Democrats take power at some point they will execute Trump and his family  given our current position en route to the left singularity. this would mirror  other left singularities like the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution. In an interview, Soros says President Trump is fighting for his life this November, and if he loses, he will be “held accountable.”

 It's manifest the Democrats are pushing for  vote by mail,  so they can mount a last ditch fraud. 

 The probability trump takes power this way given that he doesn't simply win an election  is probably most affected by the probability he loses the Civil War. 


Democrats have plans for it

More about their plans for it

Former CIA spook thinks they're too late to fix the  mail in voting. 

Oligarchs are pretty clearly supporting their coup. on the other hand majority of the people, especially armed people, oppose it. 

The former Defense Secretary and the former DNI reportedly held a seditious conversation about removing Trump. also Vindeman  usurped trumps policies with the apparent support of the Defense Department.

 it's a little hard to know how to judge the impact of this information on the likelihood of a coup in the next five months,  since they've apparently been interested in it for a long time and haven't done it. 


So far Trump has outsmarted them in several attempts, Including numerous investigations and impeachment trial. also in Syria and elsewhere. 

 he's known about their predisposition for a coup for a long time ( for example because Q has been talking about it, as well as the fact that they have been attempting it).


They didn't attempt one in 2016, Instead attempting the " resistance” and various investigations to try to get him out.  Arguably their chances would have been better then, because Obama was commander-in-chief,  and the people had more belief in the media than they do now. 


Biden is allegedly ahead in the polls. However, whether these polls can be trusted is highly questionable.  Hillary was well ahead in the polls and lost. Trump is about four points ahead  in approval rating of where Obama was at this time in 2012 according to Rasmussen.  He's also doing  well in a number of battleground states.  They also withheld the polls following the conventions.  it's hard to believe Biden is getting a lot of support when his campaign events draw single digits.  another poll showed that 10% of trump supporters are lying to pollsters,  scared of repercussions if they tell a phone caller  they are supporting Trump. I think just from the polls it's at least as likely that Trump is leading and the polls are crooked or wrong as it is that Biden is leading. 


The last incumbent to lose  was Bush one. it's relatively rare. 


Democrats lead a successful coup, Or at least one that holds Washington in February


He draws vast crowds wherever he goes or when he speaks.

His presumptive opponent gets almost no audience for anything

See images below of Biden's Labor Day event and trumps overflow crowd ( not even the crowd that was admitted). Both events in Pennsylvania a few days apart. 


Biden is slightly ahead in online  betting as of now. the extent to which this is supportive of his actually winning the election is called into question by the fact Hillary stood at 88% in the online betting on election eve.

 


Recent poll byMilitary times claimed Biden winning among  troops. 

This would be good evidence for their coup succeeding  if we could trust the  poll. but we've seen lots of fake polls. also it's a little hard to believe, since Trump was believed to have had a big advantage among troops in 2016, and it's hard to see what he would have done to go backward.  he's raise their pay at least twice and substantially.  He's fixed the VA so it gets 90% approval.  he has kept them out of war. he has given them all kinds of new toys and weapons. he's had four years as commander-in-chief to promote loyal soldiers  and get rid of disloyal ones. he has gone on several surprise visits to military bases around the world and they've always been cheering. If they thought they had the support of the military the Democrats might have launched a coup in 2016 instead of attempts they made to remove trump. 

so I think this poll was likely to have been faked. 


As they are counted he gets more votes.

Making this proposed belief 0.5 to be conservative and impartial and adding test statements . 

 


 When a challenge is true,  it should causally set its target to 0. Evidence of this kind, which may be more likely if the target is true or false but is not causal should be handled using test statements.

This challenge ( unless counter challenged)  will set the value of its target to false,  so it has no further impact on the graph.  please add a test statement on the subject.  if you don't  want to  please message me and I will,  or I will if a few days go by.  however frankly I am uncertain whether I leading in the  betting sites is more likely if he's getting blown out in the election or on a path to victory


Betting markets show good predictive power and most sites have Biden (even after naming Harris as VP) as a 6-5 favorite. 

 


Many generals have signaled that they won't support Trump if he tries to take over via a military nullification of the election. 


His apparent opponent is senile, videoed many times fondling young girls, blatantly guilty of corruption in the Ukraine and other places, and keeps making racist statements. 


Trump wins the election and becomes president

Giving this a 1.0 proposed belief so it's unbiased  and it's probability will be determined by added tests and proofs  and challenges. 


Trump  leads a military coup  or otherwise retains power after a disputed election or one that is not held. 


Probability Pres. Trump controls the White House in February 2021


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